The Election Commission of India (ECI) is set to declare the results of the 2025 Assembly bypolls for five crucial seats across four states—Gujarat, Kerala, Punjab, and West Bengal. These bypolls, held on June 19, are being closely watched as they serve as a litmus test for political parties ahead of key state elections in 2026. The contests feature fierce battles between the BJP, AAP, and Congress, with each party aiming to consolidate its position.
Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the battleground seats, key candidates, live trends, and political implications of these bypolls.
1. Overview of the 5 Bypoll Seats
The bypolls were necessitated due to resignations and deaths of sitting MLAs in the following constituencies:
| State | Constituency | Reason for Bypoll | Key Candidates | Leading Party (Trends) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gujarat | Visavadar | AAP MLA defected to BJP | Gopal Italia (AAP), Kirit Patel (BJP), Nitin Ranpariya (Congress) | AAP leading |
| Gujarat | Kadi (SC) | Death of BJP MLA Karshan Solanki | Rajendra Chavda (BJP), Ramesh Chavda (Congress), Jagdish Chavda (AAP) | BJP leading |
| Kerala | Nilambur | Resignation of CPI(M)-backed Independent MLA P.V. Anvar | Aryadan Shoukath (Congress-UDF), M. Swaraj (CPI(M)-LDF), Mohan George (BJP) | Congress leading |
| Punjab | Ludhiana West | Death of AAP MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi | Sanjeev Arora (AAP), Bharat Bhushan Ashu (Congress), Jiwan Gupta (BJP) | AAP leading |
| West Bengal | Kaliganj | Death of TMC MLA Nasiruddin Ahmed | Alifa Ahmed (TMC), Kabil Uddin Shaikh (Congress), Ashish Ghosh (BJP) | TMC leading |
2. State-wise Breakdown of Bypoll Results
A. Gujarat: BJP vs. AAP vs. Congress
- Visavadar: A high-stakes battle where AAP’s Gopal Italia (former Gujarat AAP chief) is leading against BJP’s Kirit Patel. The seat was vacated after AAP MLA Bhupendra Bhayani defected to the BJP.
- Kadi (SC): BJP’s Rajendra Chavda is leading, continuing the party’s dominance in this reserved seat after the death of BJP MLA Karshan Solanki.
Political Significance:
- AAP’s performance in Gujarat is crucial as it seeks to expand beyond Punjab.
- BJP aims to retain its stronghold ahead of the 2027 Gujarat elections.
B. Kerala: Congress vs. CPI(M) vs. BJP
- Nilambur: Congress’ Aryadan Shoukath (UDF) is leading against CPI(M)’s M. Swaraj (LDF). The seat falls under Priyanka Gandhi’s Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, making it a prestige battle.
Key Factors:
- The P.V. Anvar factor (ex-CPI(M) rebel now contesting as an independent) may split anti-incumbency votes.
- A Congress win would bolster UDF’s position ahead of the 2026 Kerala elections.
C. Punjab: AAP vs. Congress vs. BJP
- Ludhiana West: AAP’s Sanjeev Arora (industrialist and Rajya Sabha MP) is leading, indicating AAP’s continued influence despite recent setbacks in Delhi.
Why This Matters:
- AAP’s hold in Punjab is critical after its Delhi defeat in 2025.
- Congress hopes to regain lost ground ahead of the 2027 state polls.
D. West Bengal: TMC vs. BJP vs. Congress
- Kaliganj: TMC’s Alifa Ahmed (daughter of late MLA Nasiruddin Ahmed) is leading, reinforcing TMC’s dominance in Bengal.
Implications:
- A TMC victory would strengthen Mamata Banerjee’s position before the 2026 Bengal elections.
- BJP’s performance will indicate its rural penetration in Bengal.
3. Key Takeaways from the Bypoll Trends
- AAP’s Resilience: Despite losing Delhi, AAP is performing well in Punjab (Ludhiana West) and Gujarat (Visavadar), signaling its expansion plans.
- Congress’ Revival in Kerala: A win in Nilambur would boost Congress ahead of the 2026 Kerala polls.
- BJP’s Gujarat Dominance: Leading in Kadi shows BJP’s strong organizational strength.
- TMC’s Unshaken Hold: Kaliganj trends suggest TMC remains Bengal’s primary force.
- INDIA Bloc Dynamics: Congress and AAP’s performance will impact opposition unity ahead of 2026 state elections.
4. Broader Political Implications
- For BJP: A strong showing in Gujarat and Bengal would reinforce its national dominance.
- For AAP: Needs to retain Punjab and make inroads in Gujarat to remain relevant beyond Delhi.
- For Congress: A win in Kerala is crucial to regain momentum after recent electoral setbacks.
- For TMC: A Kaliganj victory would solidify Mamata’s position against BJP’s Bengal push.
5. Final Verdict
The 2025 bypoll results are a mini-referendum on political parties’ strategies ahead of major state elections. While BJP maintains its strongholds, AAP and Congress show resilience in key states. The final results will shape political narratives and alliances in the coming months.
Stay tuned for live updates as the ECI declares final results!
Sources: [NDTV], [India Today], [Indian Express], [Hindustan Times], [The Hindu].
